Forecasting regional population developments in Kazakhstan

Abstract

Jazybayeva A.: Regional population forecast for the Republic of Kazakhstan 4 Regional population forecast for the Republic of Kazakhstan Abstract This dissertation has three objectives. The first objective is to present literature review about theoretical background of regional population forecast. The second objective is to analyze demographic situation with relation to past and current fertility, mortality and migration development in regions of Kazakhstan. The third objective is to demonstrate two practical implementations of regional population projections. The first example is a multiregional population projection with population horizon 2009-2029 for 16 administrative divisions of Kazakhstan using period data for the year 2008 and inferring required age-sex specific interregional transition data. The second example is a multiregional population projection for period 2004-2059 of four macroregions using period-observational plan 2004-2008 and imposing internal consistency relations. The second example follows generations of people born during period of recovering fertility when these generations will be approaching retirement ages. Keywords: multiregional population projections, internal migration, consistency restraints Regionální populační prognóza Republiky Kazachstán Shrnutí Tato disertace má tři...

Jazybayeva A.: Regional population forecast for the Republic of Kazakhstan 4 Regional population forecast for the Republic of Kazakhstan Abstract This dissertation has three objectives. The first objective is to present literature review about theoretical background of regional population forecast. The second objective is to analyze demographic situation with relation to past and current fertility, mortality and migration development in regions of Kazakhstan. The third objective is to demonstrate two practical implementations of regional population projections. The first example is a multiregional population projection with population horizon 2009-2029 for 16 administrative divisions of Kazakhstan using period data for the year 2008 and inferring required age-sex specific interregional transition data. The second example is a multiregional population projection for period 2004-2059 of four macroregions using period-observational plan 2004-2008 and imposing internal consistency relations. The second example follows generations of people born during period of recovering fertility when these generations will be approaching retirement ages. Keywords: multiregional population projections, internal migration, consistency restraints Regionální populační prognóza Republiky Kazachstán Shrnutí Tato disertace má tři...