Perceiving Uncertainty on Financial Markets During the Covid-19 Pandemic
Vnímání nejistoty na finančních trzích během pandemie Covid-19
bachelor thesis (DEFENDED)
View/ Open
Permanent link
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11956/173520Identifiers
Study Information System: 239410
Collections
- Kvalifikační práce [18149]
Author
Advisor
Referee
Hronec, Martin
Faculty / Institute
Faculty of Social Sciences
Discipline
Economics and Finance
Department
Institute of Economic Studies
Date of defense
7. 6. 2022
Publisher
Univerzita Karlova, Fakulta sociálních vědLanguage
English
Grade
Excellent
Keywords (English)
uncertainty, financial markets, Covid-19 PandemicTáto práca skúma vplyv pandémie COVID-19 na FRA spready v Českej republike. Keďže FRA slúži ako užitočný nástroj na zabezpečenie proti možnému riziku spojenom s pohybom úrokových sadzieb, je to relevantný indikátor konsenzuálneho názoru a vnímanej neistoty ohľadom budúcej finančnej situácie. Účinky meriame pomocou ARMA-GJR-GARCH modelovania. Ako vysvetľujúce premenné sú zahrnuté viaceré indexy COVID-19, ktoré predstavujú reakciu vlády na pandémiu. Výsledky ukazujú pád FRA spreadov pri začiatku pandémie a taktiež zvýšenie volatility FRA spreadov, ktorá sa počas daného obdobia zdvojnásobila. Naše hlavné zistenia naznačujú, že COVID-19 ovplyvnil pokles FRA spreadov. Zvýšenie volatility sme však dátami o COVID-19 nedokázali vysvetliť.
This thesis examines the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on forward rate agreements (FRA) spreads in the Czech Republic. Since FRA serves as a useful instrument to hedge against possible risk associated with interest rate movements, it is a relevant indicator of a consensus view and perceived uncertainty about the future financial situation. We measure the effects by employing ARMA-GJR- GARCH modeling. Several COVID-19 indices, representing the government response to the pandemic, are included as explanatory variables. The results show a significant drop in FRA spreads as the pandemic began, as well as a strong increase in the FRA spreads volatility, which doubled during that period. Our main findings suggest that the COVID-19 affected the decrease of FRA spreads. However, we were not able to explain the volatility increase by the COVID-19 data.