Between East and West - Strategic Potential Analysis of Turkey

Abstract

Despite the vast research into Turkey as a rising power, few argue that Turkey is not a rising power. Scholars highlight that Turkey's economy, position, foreign policy, regional influence and ties to the West have helped contribute or sustain its rise. However, many of these assessments are dated not taking into consideration recent events that have cast doubt on the prospect of Turkey being a rising power. Combining academic and intelligence research, this study takes the form of an OSINT analysis. Utilising a mixed method approach, Turkey is analysed utilising strategic potential analysis. The analysis, throughout the seven factors (physical, resources and communications, human, economic, political and administrative, and military), found that Turkey's weaknesses outnumber, at times negating, and in some instances invalidating the strengths which past scholars have tended to emphasise. The scope and depth of this paper not only highlighted the shortcomings of past scholars' limited and narrow studies, but showed that Turkey neither exhibits the ascendancy to be a rising power nor the potential to transition to a great power. In the end, Turkey's decline in influence allows for other states to play a larger role in the region. As it is no longer seen as a model for secular politics and Islam,...