The Impact of Oil Prices in Norway on Macroeconomic Indicators

Abstract

This thesis analyzes the impact of oil price shocks on the selected macroeconomic variables in Norway for the period of 1990 till 2016. Lag-length test and structural vector autoregressive models are also applied to determine the oil price shocks effect on macroeconomic indicators. We are incorporating 1990 - 2016-time horizon to show the before-crisis, during and after the crisis oil price behavior. We will show that Norwegian oil prices have a strong and significant impact on exchange rate and export per capita. In the context of significant impact, we mean the oil prices will be dependent on these macroeconomic variables. We assume to have the correlation strong. We will show that oil price increase has opposite effect on export per capita and negative impact (decrease) on industrial production index. Last hypothesis states that oil price increase cause interest rate to rise and exchange rate to appreciate.