Convergence or Divergence: The Analysis of Economic Growth in the CIS Countries

Abstract

This dissertation examines from a comparative perspective the growth experience for a sample of twelve countries of the former Soviet Union over the period from 1991 to 2008. Two meth- ods of econometric analysis are applied: cross-section regressions and dynamic panel data esti- mation techniques. The main focus of the study has been to empirically establish whether coun- tries in the region are converging or diverging in terms of their income per capita and to find important sources of cross-country differences which determine the shape of this process. I did not find statistically significant support for conditional convergence in any cross-section period. It is partly supported by the increased dispersion of per capita income levels during the sample period. Meanwhile, panel data fixed-effects and GMM methods provide strong support for con- ditional convergence hypothesis. The first-differenced GMM estimator indicates a rate of con- vergence of around 2 per cent a year, which is surprisingly similar to the standard cross-section findings in empirical literature. However, it could be the result of the cyclical behaviour of out- put during transition. In general, results indicate that structural transformation is not yet over in most of the countries. Therefore progress in market-oriented reforms and...