The Rise and Consolidation of Mexican Cartels: Bilateral Security Friction, Asymmetric Interdependence, and the U.S.-Mexico Landscape

Abstract

This thesis examines the transformation of Mexican drug cartels from localized agrarian smuggling networks into sophisticated transnational non-state actors (TNAs) capable of contesting state authority and reshaping North American security dynamics. It argues that cartel consolidation cannot be understood as an isolated phenomenon, but rather as a product of the structural realities of U.S.-Mexico asymmetric interdependence. Sustained U.S demand for illicit drugs, the southbound flow of firearms and deeply integrated commercial trade networks have created conditions that enable cartels to expand their influence and establish parallel systems of criminal governance. Using a qualitative multi-method research design combining process tracing with semi-structured expert and politic interviews, this thesis examines how cartels exploit institutional vulnerabilities, diversify their activities and adapt to changing security environments. This thesis concludes that sustainable security depends upon strengthening subnational institutions, reducing corruption and expanding bilateral cooperation that respects sovereign equality rather than relying on unilateral measures.