Rhetorical Contagion in EU Climate Politics: The Influence of the European Conservatives and Reformists on the European People's Party

Abstract

This thesis examines under what conditions rhetorical contagion occurs from the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) to the European People's Party (EPP) about EU climate policy. Drawing on theories of euroscepticism, populism, contagion and climate scepticism, this research argues that contagion is not automatic but is shaped by multiple factors, of which this research examines two: the degree of politicisation of climate policy and the coalition potential of the ECR within the European Parliament. To assess this argument, a comparative case study design is utilised, analysing two legislative cases: the European Climate Law (2021) and the revision of the combustion engine phase-out. Using qualitative content analysis of European Parliament debates, party communications, and social media communications, this thesis compares the discourse of the ECR and EPP across the 9th and 10th European Parliaments. The findings show that contagion was limited during the negotiations on the European Climate Law, when polarisation was at a lower level, and coalition incentives were weak. By contrast, the combustion engine phase-out was characterised by heightened politicisation, a breakdown of the permissive consensus on climate, and a significantly strengthened coalition role for the ECR following the 2024...