Russian Airpower in Ukraine: Analyzing the Performance of Russia's Aerospace Forces and its Implications for the Theory of Airpower

Abstract

2687344F - 47266728 Russian Airpower in Ukraine: Analyzing the Performance of Russia's Aerospace Forces and its Implications for the Theory of Airpower Abstract A heated debate emerged in the West regarding the reasons behind the seemingly underwhelming performance of Russian airpower in Ukraine. Yet although many experts in the field have advanced their own hypotheses, few have put their ideas to the test through empirical analysis and the scientific method. This essay aims to address this gap in the literature by using explaining- outcome process tracing to comprehensively reconstruct Russia's blitzkrieg strategy to conquer Ukraine and examine the performance of the VKS in the skies over Ukraine. The timeframe for the reconstruction of events spans from February 24th , 2022, the day Russia launched the invasion, to the end of March and early days of April 2022, when the so-called first phase of the war ended following Russia's retreat from the northern axis. By analyzing the evidence thus gathered, this essay then seeks to provide an explanation for why the VKS did not achieve air supremacy. More precisely, this essay concludes that the inability of the VKS to assert uncontestable control over Ukrainian airspace was the result of a nonlinear synergistic interaction of multiple factors: (1) the lack of...