Profiling a State? Combining the Methods of Micro-Level Profiling with the Scope of Macro-Level Strategic Analysis

Abstract

This dissertation presents a new method of strategic analysis - the Profiling Cycle. It proposes to combine micro-level profiling methods as used in criminal profiling, behavioral psychology, and sociology, with macro-level methods used for strategic analysis, including neoclassical realism and a newly developed comparative strategy. The Theory of the Big 5 was chosen to represent behavioral psychology, and Coleman's Boat was used for sociology. Key elements from these prevailing theories and methods were borrowed and applied on the level of an entire state. The dissertation explains the Profiling Cycle step-by-step, thereby allowing anyone wishing to use this new method to do so. For illustration, it applies the first step of the Profiling Cycle to the Russian Federation as a case study. The Profiling Cycle's ability to accurately predict future behavior can only be tested in the medium to long term. This dissertation acts as a proof-of-concept. It describes how a functionally complete profile can be created with the help of behavioral psychology, and how an analyst might use this profile to set up possible medium to long term scenarios. Keywords: Strategic Analysis, Theory of the Big 5, Coleman's Boat, Criminal Profiling, Russia, New method, Profiling Cycle