Differential Portrayal of Refugee Crises: The European Commission's Influence on Member States' Responses and Policy Outcomes

Abstract

This paper investigates the EU's response to two major events, the 2015 Syrian Refugee Crisis and the 2022 Ukrainian crisis, using sentiment analysis via Generative Pre-trained Transformer 4 (GPT-4), an advanced AI tool. The vital premise of this research is that the EU's way of migration management is inconsistent, that's a longtime concept in academia, whereas the novelty of this studies is that it highlights the role of the European Commission, a notably influential body within the EU, in shaping member states' responses and attitudes toward asylum seekers. The quantitative sentiment analysis found out the emergence of heterogeneous discourses, especially the dichotomy between "fictional" (oblique) and "factual" (direct) discourses. The EU's response to the 2015 crisis was marked by repetitive, delayed, and blame-shifting discourse that targeted a loss of cohesion among member states and the lack of an unified action plan. In contrast, the EU's response to the 2022 Ukrainian Crisis takes the form of factual narratives, encompassing both immediate crisis management and the development of plans to assist those granted protection. The findings improve our understanding of the EU's response to these crises, highlighting the complexities and nuances in its discourses and actions.