Indicator Development for Strategic Warning Intelligence

Abstract

1 Abstract. With the end of the Cold War, the focus of strategic warning intelligence has shifted from nation states to a wide range of increasingly more complex crisis phenomena, involving various (non-state) actors. In order to give warning, crisis indicators have to be developed, measured and monitored over time. However, contemporary indicator development is based on poorly defined or outdated analytic methods, which do not take into consideration the increasing complexity and variety of modern crisis phenomena. Against this backdrop, this dissertation develops a mixed matrix for indicator development in strategic warning. Based on systems theory and sequential conflict models, the mixed matrix takes into consideration the various systems characterising both the state and the individual (non- state) actors within it. In addition, the mixed matrix differentiates between different types of indicators, thus encouraging analysts to critically assess the role of each indicator for a particular scenario or the warning problem as a whole. Through this, the mixed matrix provides analysts with a standardised analytic method, which, if applied consistently, will improve indicator development in strategic warning intelligence by encouraging multidisciplinary and holistic thinking while minimising the impact of...