Neither Peace Nor War: China's Grey Zone Coercion in the South China Sea

Abstract

Chinese 'assertiveness' has become a catchphrase in policy and academic discussions regarding the Asia-Pacific security and China's foreign policy more specifically. In the South China Sea, an increase in China's assertive actions to realise its expansionist territorial and maritime claims has led to speculation about the ultimate outbreak of war in the region. This would have tremendous implications for global peace and stability in the long run. A broad reference to 'assertive actions', however, fails to capture the subtlety of actual developments on the ground where China has gradually and ambiguously altered the status quo in the South China Sea at regional actors' policy paralysis. It is, therefore, important to delve beyond the descriptive label and investigate the mechanisms and strategic calculations of China's activities. More research rigour is needed to discern whether these activities belong to a sustained and systemised plan in China's dispute strategy. This dissertation examines China's maritime assertiveness through the lens of grey-zone coercion. It seeks to understand how and why China employs grey-zone coercion to defend and advance its claims in the South China Sea disputes. The questions at stake are manifold: what Chinese grey-zone coercion entails, why it uses grey-zone...