Modelování úmrtnosti ve vysokých věcích v České republice s využitím kohortních dat ze sousedních zemí =Modelling the mortality of older people in the Czech republic based on cohort data from surrounding countries

Abstract

The article presents one possible way in which to reduce uncertainty in modelling the mortality of older age groups. The lack of reliable data is usually one of the most important problems of old-age mortality modelling. The uncertainty of the estimates is reduced in this article by using multiple sources of mortality data and using the credibility approach to mixing data from several countries. For the oldest age, the extinct cohort method is applied to increase the reliability of the population data. Using Czech data mixed with data from surrounding countries, results in narrower confidence intervals of estimates and consequently more accurate predictions than when only Czech data were used.