Forecast of the pre-school education needs in Astana until 2030.

Abstract

Forecast of the pre-school education needs in Astana until 2030 Abstract This thesis aims to analyze future preschool education needs in Astana city. The low coverage of children by preschool education (a small number of preschool education institutions) initially lays the foundation of inequality elements and contradicts with the basic principles of the State education policy aimed at accessibility of education for the citizens of the country. As a consequence of insufficient governmental financing, the cost of children maintenance increased and it became the reason of unavailability of kindergarten service for separate groups of people. Consequently, the future preschool needs in Astana until 2030 is of particular interest. The thesis addresses issue of future population development dynamics in new capital city. This aim achieved with the help of forecasting techniques applied for Astana population until 2030. The thesis aimed to present the picture of how the trends (mortality, fertility and migration) are developing and how they will affect on the preschool needs in the future. Keywords: Astana, Kazakhstan, preschool needs, probability of dying, contributions to changes in life expectancy at birth, age specific fertility rate, gross reproduction rate, net reproduction rate, forecasting, cohort-component...