The Puzzle in the Turkish Foreign Policy Decision-Making Process: Beyond the Nexus of Continuities and Changes

Abstract

The puzzle in the Turkish Foreign Policy decision-making process: Beyond the nexus of continuities and changes July 2020 International Master in Security, Intelligence, and Strategic Studies This dissertation analyses the puzzle over the nexus of continuity and change in the Turkish foreign policy decision-making process. It aims to demonstrate that in Turkey's case what seems to best explain the changing patterns in the country's foreign orientations are the so-called adjustment changes in its foreign policy outlook. This study seeks to address two interrelated research questions. The first research question is highly related to the complexity behind the nexus of consistency and inconsistency and to what extent changes in the country's foreign policy direction are radical or a product of adjustment changes. The second research question is related to how an interplay of interrelated variables can provide an insightful explanation regarding Turkey's convergences and divergences with states in high and low political salience issues. This study uses two decision models, the prominent 'Two-Level Games' introduced by Putnam, and a more recent model, the very well-known Poliheuristic theory introduced by Mintz, to demonstrate how the interplay of the individual, domestic and international component acts...