China's One Belt and One Road Initiative and its potential for the tourism industries in Africa, Asia and Europe: a gravity model approach

Abstract

In 2013, China presented the idea of the infrastructure project One Belt One Road. The thesis aims to analyse the potential effects of the initiative, and how its attempt to improve transport infrastructure will impact EU-tourist flows to participating countries. A closer look to the effects on the tourism industry is justified because of the importance of the touristic sector for the global economy. For instance, the direct contribution of the touristic sector accounted for 2.3 trillion USD worldwide in 2016. A gravity model approach is used in the following paper to examine the significance of road, railway, air service as well as port infrastructure for tourists from the European Union. Afterwards, an OBOR simulation is carried out that forecasts a potential change for EU-tourist inflows. The results go in line with previous gravity model studies regarding the positive relationship of the GDP and the inverse influence of the distance on tourism flows. Furthermore, the findings suggest a significant impact of well-developed road, railway and air service networks. However, the quality of ports did not meet the expectations and is somewhat contra productive for the decision making of EU tourists. The simulation for the improvement of transport infrastructure implies that countries with an under-...

In 2013, China presented the idea of the infrastructure project One Belt One Road. The thesis aims to analyse the potential effects of the initiative, and how its attempt to improve transport infrastructure will impact EU-tourist flows to participating countries. A closer look to the effects on the tourism industry is justified because of the importance of the touristic sector for the global economy. For instance, the direct contribution of the touristic sector accounted for 2.3 trillion USD worldwide in 2016. A gravity model approach is used in the following paper to examine the significance of road, railway, air service as well as port infrastructure for tourists from the European Union. Afterwards, an OBOR simulation is carried out that forecasts a potential change for EU-tourist inflows. The results go in line with previous gravity model studies regarding the positive relationship of the GDP and the inverse influence of the distance on tourism flows. Furthermore, the findings suggest a significant impact of well-developed road, railway and air service networks. However, the quality of ports did not meet the expectations and is somewhat contra productive for the decision making of EU tourists. The simulation for the improvement of transport infrastructure implies that countries with an under-...